This is the 2020 US presidential election thread. A discussion and vent space where we can discuss these events with like-minded individuals.
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So South Carolina is next right?
I remember on the debate before last the talking pundit heads kept talking like that was some big ace in the hole for Biden. Is the reasoning behind that just that Biden has the “I used to work with Obama” thing going on?
I was knee deep in a fever at the time so my old CPU wasn’t firing at full strength and pundit talk under normal circumstances makes me feel like my brain is melting.
South Carolina was favored for Biden because he was polling very well with SC’s black population. Some of that may have been due to Obama association or just plain name recognition. Biden has been slowly and steadily losing that ground as his brain continues to melt and he continues to lose other states and not stand out in debates. As to where things are now I am not certain as I have taken a break from Twitter (great for my mental health—bad for being informed).
On a personal note, I have spent the last two months preparing for the bar exam—a hell test if you wanna be a lawyer. The test itself is tomorrow and Wednesday and I am celebrating by finally phone banking for Bernie for a few hours on Thursday. Very excited to finally be doing something productive.
Biden was very popular with black voters at the start of the race. That was basically his selling point (+ “electability”). However, Bernie did about as well as Biden with black voters in Nevada and is polling just below Biden overall in SC (not to mention doing vastly better with Latinos). SC was heavily favored to Biden. He could still win, but if he doesn’t it means it’s basically over for him.
So if Bernie wins decisively in South Carolina, is it almost 100% a given that he’ll be the nominee? Or is Super Tuesday still really crucial?
South Carolina is more about momentum than raw numbers. If Bernie goes four-for-four before Super Tuesday, that’s a tremendous amount of momentum to carry into Super Tuesday. Every bit helps as he pushes to earn a raw majority instead of just a plurality of delegates.
In terms of delegate counts, the race doesn’t even start until Super Tuesday. These early primaries are about winnowing the field and building moment.
So if Bernie wins SC, that’s pretty good momentum for him. It shows that his support is actually pretty broad. If Biden beats Bernie, that re-estabilishes his perception of “electability” that got damaged in Iowa and gives him a solid victory to campaign on going into Super Tuesday. It seems unlikely that anyone other than those two would actually win SC.
Barring some sort of huge upset, it seems like Bernie is a lock to win the plurality of the delegates; nobody else is even close, based on polling. As DarthTythus says, that makes the rest of the race mostly a question of how big his delegate lead is going to be going into the convention
If Biden loses South Carolina, it’d be hard for him to justify staying in the race. I think he will win, but he’s probably fighting for it more than he ever thought he’d have to.
Most of my friends and family live in Super Tuesday states, and I think my vote is counted then? (I am abroad.) So that’s going to be an interesting one.
BIden has never won a presidential primary. An impressive feat considering how many times he’s ran for president.
This is always interesting to me because as much as we dig into candidates’ personal histories there’s less talk about “this person ran for president before and they’re terrible at campaigning”, which seems like an important aspect to evaluate.
The upcoming debate should be interesting. Usually, candidates tend to gang up more on a new front runner like Bernie, but so far Bloomberg has been accidentally running interference for him by being a huge easy target instead. Bloomberg is also splitting Biden’s voters which makes Bernie look even better - presumably the exact opposite of his intent while dumping hundreds of millions into advertising. This time, with Bloomberg plummeting in relevance, I suspect the heat will be up on Bernie for this debate instead.
Steyer’s back for the South Carolina debate too (he didn’t qualify for the Nevada one) which should be worth seeing, since his debate strategy is wild.
Would I spend $400 million to try to be friends with Bernie? If I had Steyer’s money, I’d think about it.
This is the thing. So many people I know were absolutely convinced Biden was going to win and that it wouldn’t even be close. I never understood that! The guy has run so many times and proven over and over that he’s just godawful at campaigning, and sure enough he’s out here calling people lying dog faced pony soldiers.
The only thing I can think is the uncle Biden memes just totally wiped people’s memories. That and Sanders’ defeat in 2016 really building up cynicism in some folks.
Biden was also doing very well in national polls up until Iowa. Obviously, that was due to Obama nostalgia more than any positive quality of Biden’s, but the assumption that it was going to be a Sanders vs. Biden race (which could still happen, depending on the SC results) wasn’t based on nothing.
Oh for sure, I just think too few people remember that polls are snapshots in time. They matter, but they also change, and historically for Biden his polling gets worse throughout his campaigns. I also think there was a chicken and egg thing happening, where the conviction that he will win and the name recognition lead to higher polls which lead to greater conviction and more media coverage. Up until the point more people start paying attention to the race.
I would like to point out that South Carolina is 30% black. So. A minority. So if Biden wins don’t blame us. Also, we need better numbers and more granular information on black voters. Older voters vs younger. Church going voters vs otherwise. Christian and not.
I get worried when people start talking about black voters because we get blamed for a lot of shit. And somehow get ignored by politicians regularly. So we are both mega powerful and also totally powerless.
Now is this him being tired/exhausted/whatever and just falling back on 36 years of giving speeches a senator or does he know he is about to drop out and go for the senate instead*?
(reminder of rule 1 and 4 of the thread)
*I actually have no idea if he can still do that or not sorry I’m not American
I’m not a fan of Biden, but I do think it sounds so exhausting to have to get every single word right while on the campaign trail. I tend to ignore stories like these. He misspoke. I myself can barely get a sentence out with the right words.
Except what a president says matters, we’ve seen the difference in how the world treats us when our leader frequently misspeaks. Bush 43 was eloquent compared to Trump and we had to dedicate more national resources than we should on tidying up after his mouth on top of his horrible policies.
We get more done when our president knows what/what not to say and when/when not to say it.
I understand where you’re coming from, but from a quick Google search the only people covering this story are Fox News, Breitbart, and the NY Post. It’s a verbal slip-up at a campaign event, which he has probably done 5-6 every day for the past several weeks. Yeah, he’s going to slip up sometimes. I trust him to give pre-written speeches if he is elected. (And, again, not a Biden stan at all. This is just a non-issue to me.)