Regarding the idea floated on the Friday podcast about holding out some hope that Biden’s VP pick would be the one to go after Trump on the campaign trail, this tidbit from this profile of Gretchen Whitmer kinda tips the hand of the Biden campaign on how they’re looking for the exact opposite:
There’s a part of Whitmer that wants to clap back at Trump, to teach him some manners in front of the nation. But it would be tragically counterproductive. He has the capacity to help Whitmer save lives, potentially many lives, with the power and resources of the federal government. At the same time, while roasting POTUS might win Whitmer points with the woke-or-die crowd online, it would damage her prospects as Biden’s No. 2. The presumptive Democratic nominee has campaigned on ratcheting down the political temperature; the last thing he wants is a running mate who fights with a flamethrower while the country is ablaze.
I’m personally on the “might not vote for Biden in November” side. Literally every other election I’ve been on team “well the Republicans are so bad I’ll vote for this terrible candidate” but during this election and, more importantly, the pandemic, the national Democratic leadership has used the threat of the worst presidential administration in living memory to become the most venal and self-serving version of itself. We’ll see how I feel in November. I’m also not convinced Biden can actually win, either.
Side note: can we as a country stop immediately deciding that any Democratic politician who gets news coverage for more than a day is now the new superstar? Like, Whitmer is like, fine, as far as Michigan governors go, especially compared to the last one we had, and I’m certainly happy to have her instead of, say, Cuomo, but why is a first-term governor who has just barely taken the seat back from Republicans a serious choice to be yanked out of there and made into the vice president? Again, not exactly confidence inspiring choices being made.
A lot of people want a splashy VP pick who will get people excited. Or at least clicks when you write the headline about Warren or Cuomo or whoever as a VP potential.
In reality, most VP picks (from either party) in living memory got either a ‘who?’ or a ‘uhh name’s familiar, who was he again? oh right, that prick’ from me and most people I know. Gun to my head, I couldn’t tell you who Hillary’s running mate was. (edit: Tim Kaine! Only had to stew on it for an hour but I got there.)
Dude’s name is Tim Kaine. He’s a Senator from Virginia and about as much of a political nonentity as you can imagine.
The “veepstakes” is always a hot topic of conversation during presidential elections because people need something to talk about in spite of the VP position not being a huge deal. It just happens to have particular salience this time around because of Biden’s advanced age.
And—unless I misread or misheard this—he’s more or less said that he intends to be a one-term president? Whoever his VP is will be in a pretty markedly different situation from a typical VP pick, in that, were he to win, that person would have a clear inside track for the 2024 nomination.
I’d also imagine that that excludes anyone of a similar age, which makes me doubtful about Warren in particular—beyond the fact that her state has a Republican governor and losing a Senate seat this year would be less than optimal.
To be honest, his pick will absolutely have a nonzero effect on whether or not I end up voting for him, and it could end up being the biggest factor. If he picks someone aligned with him (or to his right), I’m probably done. Otherwise, we’ll see.
So, there was a round of rumors a while back saying that Biden intended to only be president for one term, but that sort of got mashed into the traditional West Wing fanfic of “What if [candidate] announced that they’d only run for one term so they could focus on governing instead of running for reelection.” And then coupled with the whole “Biden’s VP better be ready for the job” thing, it got really hard to discern fact from fiction there.
I think it’s pretty safe to say that Biden’s pick, whoever it will be, will have qualifications for the top job (although Stacey Abrams is certainly a fashionable pick at the moment). And will almost certainly be a woman. Beyond that, there’s probably a document somewhere at Biden HQ with some names, but anyone who hasn’t seen the document is just guessing.
One thing they could do to at least assuage someone like me is going a step further than using their VP pick to try and convince me their cabinet won’t be terrible would be to just straight up put out a list of people they’re looking at to fill cabinet positions, and have people in there that would actually implement policies that would help the poor and marginalized people in this country and abroad, because aside from Biden leaving office early for whatever reason the VP is basically a non-entity in most cases.
If Biden’s campaign staff is smart they’ll pick Warren or someone with left leaning policies of some sort but they’re the same people who did Hillary’s campaign in 2016 so don’t get your hopes up.
Does Warren have the same standing among the left that she had initially after failing to endorse Sanders and arguably hamstringing him at Super Tuesday?
Not among hardcore internet leftists, but the aim is to placate the left somewhat while appealing to independents. She’s the best option outside Bernie of someone I can see taking the job.
I mean, opening her campaign with announcing her DNA test results to “prove” her Native American ancestry put her on shaky footing to begin with? The main reason I supported her early on was because I thought the party would be more accepting of her candidacy than Sanders’, but a) I was wrong about that and b) Sanders had a much better campaign and learned from his mistakes last time around. I tend not to put too much stock in individual politicians anyway, and I don’t think most leftists who aren’t new to politics do either.
In any case, I doubt she’ll be picked as VP because Massachusetts has a Republican governor right now so they’d lose a senate seat. In fact, if Biden DID pick her it would honestly make me LESS likely to vote for him, because losing a senate seat to try and pick up a handful of leftist votes is garbage strategy!
The one thing that makes me think it won’t be Clinton is that she’s 72, which I don’t think is sufficiently young relative to Biden to not freak out voters.
How do y’all feel about Vice President Kamala Harris, though?
Harris was one of my least favourite of the original 2938 candidates, so I hope not.
My running mate predictions, with titles.
The Boring But Safe: Catherine Cortez Masto. She hasn’t been a Senator for too long (3 years) but that means her record is pretty clean. Under 60, Senator in a swing state.
The Appeal to Progressives: Tammy Baldwin. Doesn’t have the baggage of Warren, and not as likely to ruffle the moderate feathers as Omar. Under 60, Senator in a swing state.
The Ex-Primary Candidate: Amy Klobuchar. I hate her, but this is predictions not preferences. Under 60 (she won’t be by November, but still), Senator in a swing state.
The Nightmare Scenario: You might think I would write Hillary Clinton here, but no. No, I think there is someone both more likely and more hellish. And her name is Debbie Wasserman Schultz. Under 60, Representative in a swing state. Succeeded Tim Kaine as DNC chair, and hey, he got the VP pick last time around. Will Biden do something so brazen? I hope not, but God, could you imagine.
Given he wants to be a one term president they probably want to set up the VP to run in 2024 so it’s impossible for me to imagine he / the DNC would choose a progressive.
I have good news for you about DWS: Obama really doesn’t like her. Like, really doesn’t like her. I don’t know how much overall say Obama will get in the VP pick, but given how much say he had in wrapping up the primary, it wouldn’t surprise me if Biden’s team gives him a call to ask for an opinion.
I’ve been predicting it’ll be Harris for a few reasons (in no particular order):
She’s qualified for the gig
She’s a woman of color
with just-broad-enough name recognition among the people for whom the VP pick has particular salience
She’s broadly acceptable to the donor class
She’s good at raising money and unlocks a lot of Silicon Valley money where Biden doesn’t necessarily have the relationships
She’s good at the traditional VP “attack dog” role
Her oppo people are very good at their jobs.
She comes from an extremely blue state, so her Senate seat is safe.
